How Will Trump Presidency Impact the Condo Market (Part II)?

The Miami Herald interviewed many of the area’s top brokers, bankers, attorneys, and developers about the possible impact of the recent election on South Florida’s real estate industry. Overall, they are mostly optimistic.

Jill Hertzberg and Jill Eber, “The Jills” at Coldwell Banker, master brokers – While election night uncertainty could have rattled the stock market, it rebounded the next day. As far as long term, The Jills believe the Miami market will depend on the growth of the economy in the next year, both here and around the globe. “We are a primary as well as secondary – and third-home market with our favorable taxation and reasonable pricing compared to Northeast US, California, Europe and Brazil.” They are convinced that South Americans will continue to invest in the Miami luxury market as “they have relatives and friends here and they are very comfortable here.”

Aaron Drucker, Managing broker in Miami for national real estate brokerage, Redfin – He believes that inventory and economics will drive consumer decision-making, not election results. If there is any uncertainty, it will be short term as Trump lays out more concrete tax plans. He states many wealthy sellers may delay listing their homes hoping “to get a more favorable death tax rate.” He also feels that “One of the biggest impacts Trump can have to the housing market long term is a refocus on FHA loans,” and by lowering or removing the premium on mortgage insurance, more people will have access to home ownership.

Ezra Katz, real estate investor, CEO of Aztec Group – Since “Donald Trump is a businessman and developer by trade”, Katz believes “his presidency will positively impact our economy – and by extension, real estate development, finance and sales.” By eliminating many of the current regulations that are hurting U.S. companies, Katz is convinced this will encourage entrepreneurship and entice companies to relocate to South Florida. “The real wild card is whether Trump will reach across the aisle to work with both parties in Congress.”

Armando Codina, developer and executive chairman, Codina Partners – If Trump is successful in getting his proposed tax plan implemented, he says that real estate will benefit from lower capital gains and businesses should benefit from lower corporate rates. Codina further states, “Elections in Latin America have a much greater impact on us. America will continue to be seen as a safe haven.”

Craig Studnicky, broker and principal of ISG World – Studnicky is concerned that Trump’s lack of experience in public affairs could be a problem for international buyers. “The real question is, a year from now, will Donald Trump be perceived as a strong leader for the country” and will his presidency benefit the world? “Domestically, he may be. It’s very unpredictable at the moment.”

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